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For example, the unemployment rate reached its lowest level prior to the December 2007 peak of activity in May 2007 at 4.4 percent and climbed to 5.0 percent by December 2007.On the other hand, the unemployment rate often continues to rise after activity has reached its trough.Second, we place considerable emphasis on monthly indicators in arriving at a monthly chronology.

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In the 2001 recession, we found a clear signal in employment and a mixed one in the various measures of output.In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.In the recession beginning in December 2007 and ending in June 2009, real GDP declined in the first, third, and fourth quarters of 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009.Recall that our definition includes the phrase, "a significant decline in activity." Fourth, in examining the behavior of domestic production, we consider not only the conventional product-side GDP estimates, but also the conceptually equivalent income-side GDI estimates.The differences between these two sets of estimates were particularly evident in the recessions of 20-2009.

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